Below the Fold

2012 Prediction: Paper Will Be the Next Disruptive Technology

There’s a little-known scene in the movie “Star Trek: First Contact,” where Lt. Commander Data, an android, observes Captain Jean-Luc Picard touching the hull of an historic spacecraft. The captain smiles and taps the ship with his bare fingers, to which Data asks, “Sir, does tactile contact alter your perception of (the ship)?”

“Oh yes,” Picard says. “For humans, touch can connect you to an object in a very personal way. It makes it seem more real.”

Data then touches the ship himself, and says,” I am detecting imperfections in the titanium casing. Temperature variations in the fuel manifold. It’s no more real to me now than it was a moment ago.”

Data’s reaction is similar to how many of us interact with both objects and information today. More and more, our “things” are trapped under a layer of glass. We can “touch” but we can’t always feel. We live our lives from screen to shining screen.

It's a digital world – and overall, it’s a far better world. But digital should enhance physical experiences, not replace them or separate us completely from what makes us human.

This is why I believe it’s time to make a place for real objects and real connections. It’s time for a truly disruptive technology to bring us back to our senses.

It’s time for paper.

No, I’m not joking. And no, I’m not just an old journalist pining for the days of picas and ink-stained fingertips (okay, it’s true I’m old, just not insane.) There is a place for paper in a digital world, because although all information will soon be converted into bits, human beings are still made of atoms.

Our sense of touch and its emotional resonance is unique from other animals. Paper transmits feeling in ways screens can’t begin to deliver. Paper is far from perfect, but it’s more than ready for a renaissance.

Despite the meteoric rise of e-books, the largest growth is in the print-on-demand sector, increasing 169 percent in 2010 and even greater in 2011. Lulu.com, a leading print-on-demand press, expects $40 million in revenue this year, up from $34 million in 2010.

And investor Warren Buffet’s latest purchase? The Omaha World-Herald, a newspaper. Said Buffet, “I wouldn’t do this if I thought this was doomed to some sort of extinction.”

I’m being a bit overly persuasive – of course paper will never be what it once was. This shift to digital didn’t start with the iPad or Kindle either, remember LexisNexis in the 1970s?

But we have reached the point where paper is again disruptive, and when incorporating paper or print into communication can set you apart as an innovator rather than make you appear old fashioned.

Access to information should not be confused with connection to that information. Commander Data from Star Trek was able to access information about the spacecraft, but he couldn’t connect with it in the same way as Captain Picard.

The key question we must ask ourselves is should traditional mediums transition to digital, or should digital technology serve to enhance and improve traditional experiences and interactions? Can we live a life under glass, or do we need to get out once in a while?

Steve Jobs and the End of Patience

Remember the Apple Lisa?

Of course not.

The Newton? I hope not.

But without them, there would have been no iMac or iPad. Hell, there probably would have been no Pixar.

Steve Jobs had success because he had time to fail. The same can be said for Bill Gates and Ted Turner, or J.K. Rowling and Charles Schultz. Innovation needs space, and failure has its place.

And this is why I worry.

I don’t know whether the HP TouchPad would have succeeded – all I know is it should have had the chance. But I wonder whether that’s still possible in a world where winning is measured by the tweet, a world where products get killed out of fear, or worse, passive resignation.

It’s one thing to have vision, yet quite another to have the time to see that vision through. Steve Jobs had both – he even had the time to “kill’ his own creations, from iPod to iPhone and PC to tablet.

Innovation loves patience. In fact that’s where it thrives.

But we are not a patient culture anymore. Computers were once a dream -- now waiting a couple minutes for a computer to boot up is perceived as a nightmare. Patience is becoming as obsolete as the “delete” key on our keyboards.

Change is inevitable and the pace of change is irreversible. But innovation requires more than most of us are willing to give. Yes, it requires vision and patience, but most of all, it requires a belief that failure is but another step forward.

Remember the Apple Lisa? The Newton?

Steve Jobs does, happily. And so should we all.

Innovation is a Passion, Not A Process

HP started in a garage. And, I don’t know, about a million other business and products did too.

Albert Einstein began solving the mysteries of the universe as a patent office clerk. Thomas Edison saw a light bulb go off in his head and then invented the real thing.

Walt Disney turned a farmhouse mouse into an icon. The Wright Brothers dreamed of flying and then, well, did it.

Bill Gates, Richard Branson, Jeff Zuckerberg. My first boss in the PR world (who sold our small regional firm to Porter Novelli.) All were dropouts or misfits or social outcasts – and all successful innovators beyond imagination.

They and countless others innovated and created without the need for “Innovation Officers,” off-sites or brainstorming lessons. They didn’t need policies or waited for permission to think freely.

Innovation begins with “in,” as in from within. As soon as you make innovation a policy or a procedure it becomes a chore. I don’t know about you, but I hate doing chores.

Companies are not innovative. People are -- a person is.

True innovators follow their passions, not processes. And so should we all.

Risk May Lead to Failure -- But at Least it Leads Somewhere

In two or three years, my brother-in-law will either be bankrupt or a millionaire.

He will either profit from a complex set a business deals or go down in flames; nearly a decade of work and planning will be left to smolder on the pyre of What Might Have Been.

No middle ground. No contingencies. No safety net. Just Heaven or Hell.

Why would this educated man, a husband and father of three with one more due soon, take such a risk? Why would he pick a path leading to total euphoria or abject failure?

The truth is, when faced with the same choice, many of us choose a Third Way, one which guarantees neither pleasure nor pain.

The Third Way seems safe. A little risk, a little reward. It’s nice and in-between. The more you live in the middle, the further you are from falling off the edge.

But the Third Way actually leads nowhere. The Third Way disguises complacency with false security. The Third Way marks the beginning of your future’s end.

Not everyone can be a Bill Gates or Steve Jobs. And risk should be calculated and thought out, not supported by a whim and a prayer.

But we all can choose to do more, to be more. You can choose to believe in yourself, because financially and emotionally, you are the only person you can trust.

The Third Way is a dead end. Risk may lead to reward to or it may lead to rejection, but at least it leads somewhere.

Introducing “PEARL” – A Tool for Determining What People Will Pay for Online News

The easy answer to how much consumers will pay for online news – if there is such a thing as an easy answer – is “they’ll pay what it’s worth.” Of course that’s’ the problem: In a world where free access to news is a presumed birthright and stories have been reduced to commoditized pieces of “content,” getting people to understand the value of news is an unenviable if virtually impossible task.

That’s okay – innovation doesn’t happen in boardrooms or by crunching financials. The only way to score is to take a shot.

Nevertheless, it would be nice to have some way to evaluate the key drivers for news in a digital world -- the elements that, when applied just right, will convince people that the news is worth paying for.

Introducing “PEARL”
I’m developing a process to help determine digital news value. I call it “PEARL” – an acronym that stands for the following:

P = Personal. The news has some personal meaning, e.g., tailored to individual preferences and behaviors (technographics.) This also includes relevance, both in terms of time and place as well as geo-location (mobile.)

E = Experiential. The “packaging” of the news allows for trans-media exploration, a multi-level experience or deeper engagement with the stories.

A = Actionable. Consumers can share stories, take an immediate action (submit a poll or sign a petition), comment or contribute.

R = Remarkable. The news is unique or otherwise special, meaning you couldn’t get the same story told the same way anywhere else.

L = Local. The news has community focus or “hyper-local” coverage of neighborhood events.

I’ve also added an “S” as “extra credit” – this is for “simple,” or in other words, when the news is easy to access and experience without needing a computer science degree.

How PEARL Works
Each letter of PEARL (and S) has a numeric value between 0 and 4:

0 = Non-existent
1 = Nice try, but no
2 = Pretty good
3 = Very good
4 = Outstanding

After giving each letter a numerical value, simply do the math to get your PEARL(s) Score:

0-5: No Value (I’ll stick with Google and Yahoo!)
6-10: Some Value (but keep your money in your e-wallet)
11-15: Good/Very Good Value (okay, how much?)
16-20: Outstanding Value (sign me up – and get me some company stock)

The highest score possible is 20, assuming you awarded a 4 to all six letters (PEARL plus S.) As an example, I used PEARL(s) to evaluate The Daily, an iPad only publication that currently charges 99 cents per week:

Example: The Daily
• P = 1
• E = 3
• A = 2
• R = 2
• L = 1
• (S) = 2
PEARL Score: 11

Most news organizations should aim for scores well above 10; anything below should be cause to reassess your model. At least that’s what I’m going with for now – this is very much a work in progress, and as I do more PEARL(s) scores for other media properties, I anticipate some patterns and insights will emerge.

No system is perfect – and the question of how much people are willing to pay for online news ultimately will be determined by the market, shifts in the advertising industry, media consolidation and countless other factors both known and as yet to be realized.

Let me know what you think, either about the PEARL system in particular or the value of online news in general. And I’ll be sure to report back on how the system is evolving and provide some deeper analysis.

Innovation and the Meaning of Nowhere

It’s easy to let your mind to wander while driving along the Blue Highways of Mid-Missouri, especially in the Winter. To the naked eye there is little with which to occupy your thoughts -- just gray two-lane roads and thin, sleeping trees. All around it’s tombstone quiet, the rumbling of the tires competing only with the beating of your heart.

There are no skyscrapers, shopping malls or sushi joints. And good luck finding high-speed Internet service, wi-fi, 4G or 3G (yes, Virginia, thankfully there’s still GPRS.)

But there definitely is something here, something more important than post-modern technology yet just as critical to its success.

This place -- and countless other “nowheres” like it -- oozes with infinite possibility. The expanse is exhilarating, empowering. It makes you believe that you can do anything you want, armed with nothing more than a dream and the desire to realize it.

Where some see desolation others see a canvas. Where some see miles of nothing, others see paths to innovation. From the quiet can emerge a cacophony of new ideas and creative sparks.

My point is simply this: Sometimes there is more to learn from shutting down Twitter and not reading Mashable. Sometimes, what we think is real, what we think is a trend, what we think is epiphany, is nothing more than the reverberation of the voices outside our heads giving us a Groupthink version of reality.

Sometimes you need to forget everything you thought you knew and start over. This is how the Internet thrives, how new technologies are discovered and how culture is transformed. These are the pleasures that perspective brings.

The value of Nowhere should not be underestimated. Find yours, and you will find innovation not far behind.